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New channel Four will prevent the ascent of Telecinco and Antena 3

Telecinco and Antena 3 have raised in which goes of year but the imminent putting in scene of the future abierto channel in of Sogecable supposes a new stumbling block, according to the experts

The days of wine and roses have arrived at their aim for the television networks, according to a good part of the analysts. Telecinco and Antena 3 have raised in which a 26.8% go respectively of year and a 20.8%, but the imminent putting in scene of the new abierto channel in of Sogecable, Four, supposes a new stumbling block for the future evolution of its quotas of screen, income and quotes. Therefore, its potential is exhausted, according to the majority of the experts.

Telecinco has fallen a 6% with respect to its historical maximum and its rival Antenna 3, still more, a 9%. But this does not prevent that both television networks have discounted already more than very well the good expectations of their business. It is more, the experts notice that, from now on, the growth of income will be remarkably inferior and indicate that the market not yet is taken in serious the new chain in open Channel 4, that shuffles to begin to emit next the 4 of November. Sogecable, however, low a 10.7% from the 2005 beginning.

Everything indicates that the bet of Sogecable by its new channel is important. It is speculated on whereupon the producer of Buenafuente, the Terrat, will be the one in charge to elaborate magazín at night and several producers of the importance of Globomedia are shuffled or Gestmusic, that already works for 3 Antenna and Telecinco, explains Luis Fananas, analyst of Deustche Bank. The expert even creates that the channel will obtain from its debut a quota of screen inferior although near the 10%. It is necessary to remember that Canal+ has programs in open with quotas around 7%.

This will have its immediate repercussion in the companies of the sector, that confront the end of year with expectations of growth of income below the initials, according to the expert. In fact, Telecinco has indicated that their sales in the third trimester will be increased around a 12%, a positive percentage but inferior to the registered one in other trimesters. In addition, most probable it is than the increase becomes moderate still more in the last quarterly of the year. Fananas summarizes that the sector has many shades and few lights facing the future. Not even Sogecable has better expectations, because several large clouds are hung over their main business, the one of payment, like its new competitors Imagenio and ONO, who will make the pick up more difficult of users.

Saving Corporation, in the same line, stands out that the irruption of Four will end up passing invoice to the present leaders, although aims that it is quite improbable that very short term they are affected, because the advertizing market does not modify overnight. But after the accumulated ascents and with a view to a period of ampler time, right now neither to Antenna 3 nor to Telecinco they have left no potential of ascent, indicate the experts. However, they think that Sogecable as soon as it presents/displays risks because they hope that the new chain begins to contribute of positive form to the account of results at the end of 2007.

Another analyst of an investment bank stresses that these companies move to albur of the evolution of the consumption, and so the macroeconomic data in Spain will have an immediate effect in their business. They hang of a thread because, if they get worse, one will notice immediately in its account of results. It is necessary to add in addition the new competition, that can get to clear three points to them of quota of screen to each from now until 2010. After good behavior that has registered, the unique thing that can be said is that us they have left no margin of ascent, sentences. Again, this expert bet by Sogecable, the value more leaving behind and than can be benefitted by its new concession.

Maria Muñoz-Red, of Banesto Stock market, esteem that Sogecable is the one that better can do it facing the future between the three televising companies. The exit of the new channel can benefit it. Between the other two, Telecinco and Antena 3, I prefer the channel controlled by the Mediaset, most flexible at the time of managing the fixed expenses and, therefore, the one that better can defy to the new competition.

Fabian Lares, of Spirit Santo Investment, stands out that the market still very confused and is plagued of uncertainties and that will be key the position that adopts the public television. If it decides to trim his publicity, it would be the very good news, but he is not nothing clear it will do how it. The analyst esteem that the new channel will finish being a considerable enemy for 3 Antenna and Telecinco, but only in the long term. Therefore, while they continue appearing the positive news, the companies of the sector will continue doing it well, aims.

(Invertia, 15-09-05)

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